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High Probability Advisors, LLC — 13F Holdings & Portfolio

CIK 2039415 · latest 13F-HR filed 2026-07-13

Backtest portfolio

High Probability Advisors, LLC manages $935.0M in 13F-reported U.S. long-equity assets across 75 reported positions as of its 2026-06-30 13F-HR filing. Its largest disclosed positions are GSLC (12.55%), MTUM (11.81%), DUHP (7.18%). Quarter over quarter (versus its 2026-03-31 filing) the fund opened 10 new positions and exited 2; 51 existing positions rose in reported value and 3 fell.

AUM is the long-equity portion reported on Form 13F-HR. Excludes short positions, cash, foreign holdings, and non-13F assets. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Loading holdings…
AUM
$935.0M

Long-equity book

Holdings
75

Distinct positions

Period
2026-06-30

Filed 2026-07-13

Q/Q Activity
+10 / −2 / ↑51 / ↓3

vs 2026-03-31

Portfolio charts

Latest quarter's book, what changed, and how the portfolio has evolved across filings.

Portfolio map

Q2 26
GSLC12.6% · +5%MTUM11.8% · +2%DUHP7.2% · +6%DYNF6.4% · +6%NYF5.5% · +23%GSIE5.2% · +8%DIHP4.8% · +7%SCHO4.5% · +4%USMV4.3% · +6%SCHR4.2% · +24%AVUV3.9% · +5%FVAL3.7% · +4%SPIB3.4% · +5%AVEM3.0% · +5%FQAL3.0% · +5%SHYG2.6% · +7%IUSV2.2% · +6%IVLU1.7% · +5%GSSC1.7% · +6%FNDC1.6% · +6%SPTL1.3% · +13%SPY1.0% · 0%SPYM0.6% · +6%VTEB0.5% · +33%IWV0.2% · 0%REZ0.2% · +0%IXUS0.2% · +6%IVV0.2% · +1%IWD0.2% · 0%AAPL0.1% · +0%DFAC0.1% · -4%SPMD0.1% · +6%ACWX0.1% · -0%SCHB0.1% · +2%IWM0.1% · 0%BNL0.1% · -10%MSFT0.1% · -10%GOOGL0.1% · -4%IJR0.1% · -1%TT0.1% · -3%VEA0.1% · 0%DFAT0.1% · 0%OEF0.1% · 0%ETN0.1% · -8%ACWI0.1% · 0%GVI0.1% · 0%MU0.1% · newGBIL0.1% · +0%IEI0.0% · +1%NVDA0.0% · +30%SPSM0.0% · +5%SUSA0.0% · +0%DFUV0.0% · 0%HIG0.0% · 0%HD0.0% · -3%SCHA0.0% · 0%TSM0.0% · -39%IJH0.0% · 0%V0.0% · -4%JPM0.0% · -8%

Box size = position value; colour = change in share count vs the prior quarter (green added, red trimmed, blue new). Rows split across managers or share classes are combined. Click a box for the stock.

Sector mix

% of 13F value

Sectors from each company's SIC code; funds and ETFs grouped separately.

Biggest buys and sells

Q1 26 → Q2 26

Estimated from the change in shares held × the quarter-end price, so price moves alone don't count as buying. New and exited positions are included.

13F assets and positions

3 quarters

Total reported 13F value (bars) and number of positions (line) each quarter. Value changes include market moves.

Top positions over time

reported value

The eight largest current positions, valued at each quarter end.

Concentration

top 10 = 66.4%

Cumulative share of the portfolio held in the largest N positions.

Firm Profile & Key People

As of the firm’s regulatory filing dated May 19, 2026.

Assets Under Management
$1.05B
Discretionary
$1.01B
Employees
16
Accounts
860
Address
167 SULLY'S TRAIL
SUITE 300
PITTSFORD, NY 14534
Phone
(585) 485-0135
Website
Name Title / Status Ownership Type
BONADIO & CO, LLP ControlOWNER
since Aug 2018
25–50%Domestic Entity
CARL, STEPHEN, JOSEPH ControlCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, MANAGING MEMBER
since Aug 2017
25–50%Individual
COONS, JEFFREY, SCOTT ControlCHIEF COMPLIANCE OFFICER
since Jan 2020
5–10%Individual
JONES, MICHAEL, EDWARD ControlCHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER
since Oct 2017
25–50%Individual
Ownership & leadership changes · 4 filings with changes since Sep 25, 2017

From the firm’s regulatory filings, newest first. Dates are filing dates: a filing that no longer lists someone does not say when they left.

Sep 4, 2025 filing
  • No longer listedJONES CARL GROUP, LLC · OWNER · 50–75% · control person · listed since Aug 2018
  • ChangedCARL, STEPHEN, JOSEPH · title CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER → CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, MANAGING MEMBER; ownership Less than 5% → 25–50%
  • ChangedJONES, MICHAEL, EDWARD · ownership Less than 5% → 25–50%
Mar 15, 2020 filing
  • AddedCOONS, JEFFREY, SCOTT · CHIEF COMPLIANCE OFFICER · 5–10% · control person
  • ChangedCARL, STEPHEN, JOSEPH · title CHIEF COMPLIANCE OFFICER, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER → CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
Nov 11, 2018 filing
  • AddedBONADIO & CO, LLP · OWNER · 25–50% · control person
  • AddedJONES CARL GROUP, LLC · OWNER · 50–75% · control person
  • ChangedCARL, STEPHEN, JOSEPH · ownership 50–75% → Less than 5%
  • ChangedJONES, MICHAEL, EDWARD · ownership 50–75% → Less than 5%
Nov 3, 2017 filing
  • AddedJONES, MICHAEL, EDWARD · CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER · 50–75% · control person
  • ChangedCARL, STEPHEN, JOSEPH · ownership 75% or more → 50–75%
Sep 25, 2017 filing (earliest on record)
  • ListedCARL, STEPHEN, JOSEPH · CHIEF COMPLIANCE OFFICER, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER · 75% or more · control person

Quarter-over-quarter changes

Changes in reported position value vs the prior 13F, so price moves count too, not just shares bought or sold.

Top Adds (vs prior quarter)

Show all 51 →

Top Trims

Show all 3 →

New Positions

Show all 10 →

Exited Positions

Show all 2 →

High Probability Advisors, LLC Holdings (2026-06-30)

Rows tagged Call or Put are options positions, not stock. Per SEC Form 13F-HR, Value shows the notional value of the underlying (shares covered × underlying price), not the option premium. Shares is the number of underlying shares covered (divide by 100 for contract count).

# Issuer Symbol CUSIP Value Weight Shares Type
1 GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TR GSLC 381430503 $117.3M 12.55% 827,017 SH
2 ISHARES TR MTUM 46432F396 $110.4M 11.81% 322,023 SH
3 DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST DUHP 25434V831 $67.2M 7.18% 1,609,605 SH
4 BLACKROCK ETF TRUST DYNF 09290C103 $59.9M 6.41% 881,484 SH
5 ISHARES TR NYF 464288323 $51.5M 5.51% 956,143 SH
6 GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TR GSIE 381430107 $48.6M 5.20% 1,063,683 SH
7 DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST DIHP 25434V765 $44.6M 4.77% 1,307,603 SH
8 SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR SCHO 808524862 $42.5M 4.54% 1,758,868 SH
9 ISHARES TR USMV 46429B697 $40.2M 4.30% 417,169 SH
10 SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR SCHR 808524854 $38.8M 4.15% 1,574,348 SH
11 AMERICAN CENTY ETF TR AVUV 025072877 $36.9M 3.94% 295,565 SH
12 FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST FVAL 316092782 $34.6M 3.70% 443,665 SH
13 SPDR SERIES TRUST SPIB 78464A375 $31.4M 3.36% 939,100 SH
14 AMERICAN CENTY ETF TR AVEM 025072604 $28.0M 2.99% 289,841 SH
15 FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST FQAL 316092790 $27.8M 2.97% 341,750 SH
16 ISHARES TR SHYG 46434V407 $24.1M 2.58% 568,588 SH
17 ISHARES TR IUSV 464287663 $20.9M 2.23% 189,323 SH
18 ISHARES TR IVLU 46435G409 $15.9M 1.70% 380,882 SH
19 GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TR GSSC 381430602 $15.4M 1.65% 169,229 SH
20 SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR FNDC 808524748 $14.9M 1.59% 306,034 SH
21 SPDR SERIES TRUST SPTL 78464A664 $11.9M 1.27% 454,386 SH
22 STATE STR SPDR S&P 500 ETF T SPY 78462F103 $9.5M 1.02% 12,724 SH
23 SPDR SERIES TRUST SPYM 78464A854 $5.2M 0.55% 58,738 SH
24 VANGUARD MUN BD FDS VTEB 922907746 $4.8M 0.52% 95,878 SH
25 ISHARES TR IWV 464287689 $2.2M 0.24% 5,180 SH
26 ISHARES TR REZ 464288562 $2.2M 0.23% 23,102 SH
27 ISHARES TR IXUS 46432F834 $2.0M 0.21% 20,709 SH
28 ISHARES TR IVV 464287200 $1.8M 0.19% 2,422 SH
29 ISHARES TR IWD 464287598 $1.5M 0.16% 6,221 SH
30 APPLE INC AAPL 037833100 $1.4M 0.15% 4,848 SH
31 DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST DFAC 25434V708 $1.3M 0.14% 29,474 SH
32 SPDR SERIES TRUST SPMD 78464A847 $1.2M 0.13% 18,251 SH
33 ISHARES TR ACWX 464288240 $1.2M 0.13% 15,908 SH
34 SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR SCHB 808524102 $1.1M 0.12% 37,355 SH
35 ISHARES TR IWM 464287655 $984.0K 0.11% 3,275 SH
36 BROADSTONE NET LEASE INC BNL 11135E203 $971.8K 0.10% 47,014 SH
37 MICROSOFT CORP MSFT 594918104 $770.9K 0.08% 2,067 SH
38 ALPHABET INC GOOGL 02079K305 $766.6K 0.08% 2,145 SH
39 ISHARES TR IJR 464287804 $732.2K 0.08% 4,937 SH
40 TRANE TECHNOLOGIES PLC TT G8994E103 $668.0K 0.07% 1,360 SH
41 VANGUARD TAX-MANAGED FDS VEA 921943858 $661.7K 0.07% 9,286 SH
42 DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST DFAT 25434V609 $606.2K 0.06% 8,672 SH
43 ISHARES TR OEF 464287101 $589.1K 0.06% 1,610 SH
44 EATON CORP PLC ETN G29183103 $522.4K 0.06% 1,226 SH
45 ISHARES TR ACWI 464288257 $510.6K 0.05% 3,253 SH
46 ISHARES TR GVI 464288612 $508.9K 0.05% 4,797 SH
47 MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC MU 595112103 $498.7K 0.05% 432 SH
48 GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TR GBIL 381430529 $472.1K 0.05% 4,713 SH
49 ISHARES TR IEI 464288661 $458.3K 0.05% 3,902 SH
50 NVIDIA CORPORATION NVDA 67066G104 $427.2K 0.05% 2,135 SH
Filing History
Period Filed AUM Holdings Accession
2026-06-30 2026-07-13 $935.0M 75 0002085853-26-000697
2026-03-31 2026-04-13 $781.4M 67 0002085853-26-000339
2025-12-31 2026-01-29 $749.9M 73 0002085853-26-000141
Filer Information
Address
167 SULLY'S TRAIL
SUITE 300
PITTSFORD, NY 14534
Phone
(585) 485-0135
Filing Manager
High Probability Advisors, LLC
Pittsford, NY
Signatory
Jeffrey Scott Coons
Chief Compliance Officer