Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 3, 2026
50/50 line49%At least 225,000
Line nearest 50/50
49%
Market median
201909
Biggest 24h move+44 pts
23%
24h volume
$3K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAt least 180,000
98%
At least 190,000
88%
+8
At least 195,000
83%
-13
At least 200,000
60%
+32
At least 225,000
49%
At least 205,000
33%
-3
At least 220,000
32%
At least 215,000
23%
+44
At least 210,000
10%
+12
What the market expects
median 201909Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · dailyAll outcomes
9| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 180,000 | 98% | — | $150 | $150 |
| At least 190,000 | 88% | +8.5 | $1 | $6 |
| At least 195,000 | 83% | -13.0 | $11 | $272 |
| At least 200,000 | 60% | +32.0 | $90 | $157 |
| At least 225,000 | 49% | — | $560 | $560 |
| At least 205,000 | 33% | -3.0 | $25 | $439 |
| At least 220,000 | 32% | — | $500 | $496 |
| At least 215,000 | 23% | +44.0 | $1K | $944 |
| At least 210,000 | 10% | +12.0 | $816 | $2K |