How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (10/3-10/9)
50/50 line50%At least 15
Line nearest 50/50
50%
Market median
15
Biggest 24h move+13 pts
99%
24h volume
$6K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAt least 3
100%
+1
At least 5
99%
+13
At least 10
79%
+15
At least 15
50%
+4
At least 20
33%
At least 25
30%
+4
At least 50
3%
-7
What the market expects
median 15Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · hourlyWhere the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- At least 3YES $3K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $3K
- At least 5YES $2K · NO $0 · 2 orders · biggest $1K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 5 | YES | 99¢ | $1K | |
| At least 5 | YES | 93¢ | $1K | |
| At least 3 | YES | 98¢ | $3K |
All outcomes
7| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 3 | 100% | +1.0 | $20 | $6K |
| At least 5 | 99% | +13.0 | $4K | $3K |
| At least 10 | 79% | +15.0 | $442 | $667 |
| At least 15 | 50% | +4.0 | $275 | $272 |
| At least 20 | 33% | — | $1 | $1 |
| At least 25 | 30% | +4.0 | $383 | $394 |
| At least 50 | 3% | -7.0 | $760 | $1K |