What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 10, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

At least 50

chance of YES2% -7.5pp in 24h

Price range (2d)

2–10%

24h volume

760

$1 contracts

Open interest

1.3K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 2d

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.