What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 4.4200

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: US gas prices this week Gas prices

chance of YES4% -9.5pp in 24h

Price range (29h)

4–28%

24h volume

1.4K

$1 contracts

Open interest

2.3K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 29h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.