What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 16%, implying a 16% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 18, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 20K

Settles Oct 18, 2026 (11d) All outcomes: Mud: First Week Album Equivalent Units

chance of YES16% -3.0pp in 24h

Price range (3d)

5–27%

24h volume

160

$1 contracts

Open interest

546

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 3d

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.