What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 98%, implying a 98% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 2.3%

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: Anthropic market share this week

chance of YES98% +39.0pp in 24h

Price range (24h)

59–97%

24h volume

9.4K

$1 contracts

Open interest

5.0K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$1K

100% on YES

hourly, 24h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 2.1%98%4.4K

Above 2.4%92%9.9K

Above 2.5%92%11.1K

Above 2.6%88%9.7K

Above 2.7%78%8.2K

Above 2.8%55%5.0K

Above 2.9%34%6.0K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 6, 12:08 PM ET	YES	90¢	1,520	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.