What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 6%, implying a 6% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above $6.40

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: Diesel prices this week

chance of YES6% -3.0pp in 24h

Price range (10h)

7–14%

24h volume

400

$1 contracts

Open interest

935

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 10h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.