What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 11%, implying a 11% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

hourly, 19h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 17.8%76%11.1K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 6, 1:28 PM ET	NO	90¢	2,171	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.