What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 14%, implying a 14% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 07, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

81° to 82°

chance of YES14% -0.5pp in 24h

Price range (29h)

9–20%

24h volume

3.6K

$1 contracts

Open interest

2.8K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 29h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.