What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 07, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

83° to 84°

chance of YES2% -13.5pp in 24h

Price range (29h)

1–21%

24h volume

5.6K

$1 contracts

Open interest

4.4K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 29h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.