What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 07, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

38.2%

Settles Oct 07, 2026 (0d) All outcomes: Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 7, 2026?

chance of YES2%

Price range (5h)

4–6%

24h volume

7.4K

$1 contracts

Open interest

4.2K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$4K

0% on YES

hourly, 5h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

38.5%43%4.1K

38.6%16%5.3K

38.4%12%9.1K

38.7%10%9.6K

Above 38.7%10%11.1K

38.3%6%4.4K

38.1%2%16.2K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 6, 4:00 PM ET	NO	94¢	2,221	$2K
Oct 6, 11:15 AM ET	NO	92¢	1,709	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.