polymarket
Politics
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
December 31, 2026
28%
implied YES probability
+1.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 28% ·
Low 10%
· 7d +83.9pp
· 30d +62.9pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Other outcomes in this event
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