polymarket
Politics
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
October 31, 2026
18%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 2 days ·
High 16% ·
Low 16%
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Other outcomes in this event
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