What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 86%, implying a 86% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 10, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketPolitics & Elections

Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?

Raphael Glucksmann

Settles Oct 10, 2026 (3d) All outcomes: Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee

chance of YES86% -1.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

21–88%

30d +30 pts · 7d +4 pts

24h volume

$451

USDC traded

Open interest

$16.9K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Olivier Faure12%$817

Segolene Royal2%$275

Boris Vallaud1%$157

Jérôme Guedj1%$157

Francois Hollande1%$155

Philippe Brun0%$79

How it settles

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.