What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 31%, implying a 31% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

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Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?

3.8%

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $438 Open interest $7.9K Event How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

31%

implied YES probability

-7.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 60 days · High 64% · Low 30% · 7d -35.9pp · 30d -39.8pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.