What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Science

Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?

<100

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (106d) 24h volume — Open interest $14.2K Event How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 75 days · High 1% · Low 0% · 7d -95.2pp · 30d -87.5pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.