Alumis Inc. Common Stock(ALMS)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $2.76 – $30.60
- YTD
- +169.79%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 41.51
- Straddle Price
- $5.45
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.29
- Market Cap
- $2.7B
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.53% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.03% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 10.01% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +106.5pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | -10.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-0.4B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -41.9% |
| Book / Price | 27.8% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 100.0% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | -4487.4% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.00 |
| Quality Score | 2/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $22.92 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $21.15 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 117.8% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.1B |
| Market Cap | $2B |
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | -3.2% ⚠ | -0.07 | -0.21 | 17.0% | — |
| 42d | -3.5% ⚠ | +0.24 | -0.05 | 22.6% | — |
| 63d | -4.1% ⚠ | +0.11 | -0.11 | 18.2% | — |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | median 181.9× · 5 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 17.0× · 4 peers |
| Peer P/B | $47.21 | 50% | median 8.1× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/S | $0.89 | 50% | median 10.4× · 6 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $22.92 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
- Industry (SIC)
- PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (2834)
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $2.7B
Alumis Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with an initial focus on developing its two Tyrosine Kinase 2 ("TYK2") inhibitors: envudeucitinib ("envu"), an allosteric TYK2 inhibitor for the treatment of PsO and SLE; and A-005, a central nervous system ("CNS") penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor, to offer the therapeutic benefit of TYK2 inhibition within the CNS for a broad range of neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases.
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +69.44% | 2 |
| Feb | -8.43% | 2 |
| Mar | +3.34% | 2 |
| Apr | -20.70% | 2 |
| May | -13.26% | 2 |
| Jun | -1.23% | 3 |
| Jul | +16.97% | 2 |
| Aug | -2.24% | 2 |
| Sep | -11.45% | 2 |
| Oct | +10.64% | 2 |
| Nov | +22.39% | 2 |
| Dec | +20.54% | 2 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-14 | Pre-Market | 17.28% | 0.33% | 0.02x | Within |
| 2025-08-13 | Pre-Market | 72.31% | 3.14% | 0.04x | Within |
| 2025-11-13 | After-Close | 54.92% | 4.55% | 0.08x | Within |
| 2026-01-09 | Pre-Market | 11.66% | 7.56% | 0.65x | Within |
| 2026-03-19 | Pre-Market | 13.36% | 0.08% | 0.01x | Within |
| 2026-05-14 | Pre-Market | 10.66% | 0.99% | 0.09x | Within |
- IV Rank (30D)
- 41.51
- IV Rank (7D)
- 66.12
- Avg IV
- 162.2%
- Straddle (30D)
- $5.45
- Straddle (7D)
- $4.78
- P/C Volume
- 0.29
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 1.63
- Correlation (SPY)
- 16.5%
- R²
- 0.03
- Ann. Volatility
- 122.2%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.3%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ikarian Capital, LLC | $5.83M | 25.85% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $5.00M | 22.17% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | Caption Management, LLC | $2.20M | 9.77% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | DIADEMA PARTNERS LP | $2.20M | 9.77% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $2.18M | 9.68% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $1.99M | 8.83% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | BOOTHBAY FUND MANAGEMENT, LLC | $1.70M | 7.53% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $726.99K | 3.22% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $319.44K | 1.42% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $215.89K | 0.96% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | Persistent Asset Partners Ltd | $179.19K | 0.79% | 2026-03-31 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $2.62M | 27.74% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $2.32M | 24.53% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | Exome Asset Management LLC | $2.31M | 24.46% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $726.99K | 7.69% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | DIADEMA PARTNERS LP | $687.34K | 7.27% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $405.35K | 4.29% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $215.89K | 2.28% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $158.62K | 1.68% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | Persistent Asset Partners Ltd | $6.07K | 0.06% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | HAP TRADING, LLC | $272 | <0.01% | 2025-09-30 |
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Jorn Drappa | Chief Medical Officer | Exer (M) | +26,852 | $6.65 | $178.6K | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-03 | James B. Tananbaum | Director | Other (J) | −495,984 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-03 | Foresite Labs, LLC | 10%+ Owner | Other (J) | −991,968 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-03 | Foresite Capital Opportunity Fund V, L.P. | 10%+ Owner | Other (J) | −4,463,856 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-01-28 | Martin Babler | President, CEO and Chairman | Grant (A) | +745,875 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-01-28 | Mark Christopher Bradley | Chief Development Officer | Grant (A) | +190,225 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-01-28 | Roy C. Hardiman | Chief Business & Strategy Ofcr | Grant (A) | +190,875 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-01-28 | John R. Schroer | Chief Financial Officer | Grant (A) | +202,225 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-01-28 | Jorn Drappa | Chief Medical Officer | Grant (A) | +221,450 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-01-28 | David M Goldstein | Chief Scientific Officer | Grant (A) | +216,675 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-01-28 | Sanam Pangali | Chief Legal Officer | Grant (A) | +186,200 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-01-13 | SRINIVAS AKKARAJU | Director | Buy (P) | +588,235 | $17.00 | $10.00M | EDGAR |
| 2026-01-12 | James B. Tananbaum | Director | Buy (P) | +411,764 | $17.00 | $7.00M | EDGAR |
| 2026-01-12 | Foresite Labs, LLC | 10%+ Owner | Buy (P) | +823,528 | $17.00 | $14.00M | EDGAR |
| 2026-01-12 | Foresite Capital Fund V, L.P. | 10%+ Owner | Buy (P) | +3,705,876 | $17.00 | $63.00M | EDGAR |
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAVID E. GOEL | Director | 15,139,707 | $365.62M | $0 | 1 | 2025-05-23 |
| 2 | AyurMaya Capital Management Company, LP | Director | 8,145,966 | $196.73M | $0 | 1 | 2024-07-03 |
| 3 | SRINIVAS AKKARAJU | Director | 4,491,731 | $108.48M | $45.55M | 12 | 2026-01-13 |
| 4 | James B. Tananbaum | Director | 4,247,670 | $102.58M | $50.83M | 6 | 2026-04-03 |
| 5 | Foresite Labs Fund I, L.P. | 10%+ Owner | 2,614,215 | $63.13M | $4.80M | 1 | 2025-11-25 |
| 6 | Foresite Labs Affiliates 2021, LLC | 10%+ Owner | 2,542,003 | $61.39M | $86.19M | 2 | 2025-11-19 |
| 7 | Foresite Capital Opportunity Management V, LLC | 10%+ Owner | 2,542,003 | $61.39M | $27.85M | 1 | 2025-11-19 |
| 8 | Foresite Labs, LLC | 10%+ Owner | 1,960,337 | $47.34M | $15.47M | 4 | 2026-04-03 |
| 9 | Foresite Capital Opportunity Fund V, L.P. | 10%+ Owner | 1,960,337 | $47.34M | $0 | 1 | 2026-04-03 |
| 10 | Foresite Capital Fund V, L.P. | 10%+ Owner | 1,176,470 | $28.41M | $423.00M | 2 | 2026-01-12 |
| 11 | Foresite Capital Fund VI LP | 10%+ Owner | 1,176,470 | $28.41M | $1.82M | 1 | 2025-05-06 |
| 12 | Roy C. Hardiman | Chief Business & Strategy Ofcr | 212,818 | $5.14M | $0 | 4 | 2026-01-28 |
| 13 | Martin Babler | President, CEO and Chairman | 109,454 | $2.64M | $100.7K | 5 | 2026-01-28 |
| 14 | Mark Christopher Bradley | Chief Development Officer | 68,754 | $1.66M | $0 | 4 | 2026-01-28 |
| 15 | Jorn Drappa | Chief Medical Officer | 43,804 | $1.06M | $0 | 5 | 2026-05-27 |
| 16 | Derrick Richardson | SVP, People and Culture | 42,800 | $1.03M | $0 | 3 | 2025-07-31 |
| 17 | Sara Klein | Chief Legal Officer | 33,796 | $816.2K | $0 | 2 | 2025-02-20 |
| 18 | David M Goldstein | Chief Scientific Officer | 30,115 | $727.3K | $0 | 4 | 2026-01-28 |
| 19 | John R. Schroer | Chief Financial Officer | 28,000 | $676.2K | $0 | 4 | 2026-01-28 |
| 20 | Zhengbin Yao | Director | 23,529 | $568.2K | $0 | 2 | 2025-08-01 |
| 21 | Alan Colowick | Director | 16,104 | $388.9K | $129.5K | 1 | 2025-04-03 |
| 22 | Sanam Pangali | Chief Legal Officer | 11,111 | $268.3K | $0 | 3 | 2026-01-28 |
| 23 | Patrick Machado | Director | 7,064 | $170.6K | $0 | 3 | 2025-08-01 |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/B Ratio | 4.7 |
| P/S Ratio | 317.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | -5.8 |
| TTM Revenue | $0.0B |
| TTM Net Income | $-0.2B |
| TTM EPS | $-1.97 |
| ROE | -41.9% |