Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW)(BXMT)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
Snapshot
$18.36
- 52-Week Range
- $17.66 – $20.66
- YTD
- -5.75%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 65.13
- Straddle Price
- $1.12
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 4.50
- Market Cap
- $3.1B
Fair Value
-12.0% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.53% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.03% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 6.47% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +40.7pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 3.8% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | -4.7% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.3B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 3.0% |
| Book / Price | 109.9% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 37.7% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 21.0% |
| Debt / Equity | 4.64 |
| Quality Score | 1/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| Market-Implied Growth | +21.1% (reverse-DCF on current price) |
| SMA 50 | $18.89 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $18.18 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 24.7% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $15.3B |
| Market Cap | $3B |
Peers used for multiples: AGNC, ARI, ARR, DX, NLY, ORC, RITM, STWD
Blended Fair Value
$16.15
Current Price
$18.36
Deviation
-12.0%
Forward-Return Rank
SHORT
gated
?
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | -0.3% | +0.82 | -0.53 | 71.7% | — |
| 42d | -2.0% | +0.57 | -0.53 | 71.7% | — |
| 63d | -2.5% | +0.41 | -0.53 | 71.7% | — |
Expected α = forward-return point estimate vs SPY (e.g., +7.5% means the predictor expects this stock to outperform SPY by 7.5% over that horizon).
For SHORT direction the model uses a different ranking metric (conviction-weighted deviation, not the LGBM prediction); Expected α is shown for reference.
⚠ flags rows where Expected α disagrees with the FV direction — two independent signals are in conflict; conviction is low even if rank looks extreme.
Forward-Return Rank. A proprietary ensemble of a machine-learning forward-return model and a conviction-weighted fundamental score, ranked cross-sectionally each day across the S&P 500 (and broader universes on the screener). Each stock is scored at three horizons (21/42/63 trading days). "Active" = top/bottom 5% AND all risk filters pass. Backtested mean alpha vs SPY on active picks: 21d LONG +13.4%, 63d +34.9% (S&P 500, walk-forward). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Value vs momentum conflict ⚠. The "FV direction" (long/short) comes from the fundamentals-based engine — price vs intrinsic value. The "Expected α" comes from a separate machine-learning predictor trained on ~12 features (sector, options-implied move, beta, institutional flow, etc.). Sometimes the two disagree: a stock is overvalued by fundamentals but the predictor expects it to keep outperforming (sector or momentum tailwinds). When all 3 horizons disagree, treat the direction signal as low-conviction — neither model is strongly recommending a position.
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $-54.27 | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $12.20 | 34% | |
| Peer P/E | $5.98 | 10% | median 10.0× · 8 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 18.8× · 4 peers |
| Peer P/B | $18.80 | 17% | median 0.9× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/S | $24.12 | 17% | median 2.7× · 4 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $18.89 | 23% | stability 27% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
As of 2026-06-12 · updated 2026-06-12 20:59:55.687000
Info
- Industry (SIC)
- REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS (6798)
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $3.1B
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc is an externally managed real estate finance company that originates, acquires, and manages senior loans and other debt or credit-oriented investments collateralized by or relating to commercial real estate in North America, Europe, and Australia. Its portfolio is composed of senior loans secured by high-quality, institutional assets located in main markets, and sponsored by experienced, well-capitalized real estate investment owners and operators. The group finances its investments in a variety of ways, including borrowing under secured credit facilities, issuing…
Price History
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.56% | 6 |
| Feb | +0.76% | 6 |
| Mar | -3.70% | 6 |
| Apr | -0.93% | 6 |
| May | -0.25% | 6 |
| Jun | +0.93% | 6 |
| Jul | +3.30% | 5 |
| Aug | -1.25% | 5 |
| Sep | -5.33% | 5 |
| Oct | +1.20% | 5 |
| Nov | +2.56% | 5 |
| Dec | -4.52% | 5 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $18.18
SMA 50: $18.88
SMA 200: $19.08
Current: $18.36
EMA 12: $18.26
EMA 26: $18.41
MACD: -0.1459 | Signal: 0.0569
BEARISH
ADX (14): 19.47
RANGE
+DI: 16.90
−DI: 22.86
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 48.95
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 56.47
Stoch %D: 57.89
Williams %R: -33.79
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $18.58
BB Lower: $17.78
NEUTRAL
OBV: 3,201,460
Vol SMA 20: 1,283,613
Vol ROC: -39.44%
ATR: $0.37
True Range: $0.22
HV 20: 24.8%
HV 30: 24.2%
HV 60: 26.9%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated: 2026-06-13T13:41:18.593000
Date Range: 2024-06-14T00:00:00 – 2026-06-12T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
News
Earnings History
8 of 8 under expected move
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-24 | After-Close | 6.64% | 0.23% | 0.03x | Within |
| 2024-10-23 | Pre-Market | 7.39% | 2.63% | 0.36x | Within |
| 2025-02-12 | Pre-Market | 4.45% | 3.61% | 0.81x | Within |
| 2025-04-30 | Pre-Market | 6.47% | 1.10% | 0.17x | Within |
| 2025-07-30 | Pre-Market | 5.55% | 2.27% | 0.41x | Within |
| 2025-10-29 | Pre-Market | 4.96% | 3.47% | 0.70x | Within |
| 2026-02-11 | After-Close | 2.88% | 1.15% | 0.40x | Within |
| 2026-04-29 | Pre-Market | 4.87% | 4.65% | 0.95x | Within |
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 65.13
- IV Rank (7D)
- 79.78
- Avg IV
- 73.6%
- Straddle (30D)
- $1.12
- Straddle (7D)
- $0.68
- P/C Volume
- 4.50
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.63
- Correlation (SPY)
- 35.3%
- R²
- 0.12
- Ann. Volatility
- 22.1%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.3%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-03-31
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 170,936,631 (as of 2026-03-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
7 filers$23.71M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $7.40M | 31.20% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $5.24M | 22.09% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $4.87M | 20.53% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $2.20M | 9.29% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $1.68M | 7.07% | 2025-09-30 |
| 6 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $1.55M | 6.53% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $779.40K | 3.29% | 2026-03-31 |
9 filers$60.18M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P. | $43.37M | 72.07% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $7.28M | 12.09% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $2.61M | 4.34% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $1.78M | 2.96% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $1.77M | 2.94% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $1.36M | 2.26% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $990.00K | 1.65% | 2025-09-30 |
| 8 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $894.30K | 1.49% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | Walleye Trading LLC | $122.56K | 0.20% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Latest: 2026-04-16
Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | Leonard W Cotton | Director | Award (A) | +1,523 | $20.12 | $30.6K | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-16 | Nnenna Lynch | Director | Award (A) | +803 | $20.12 | $16.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-16 | HENRY N NASSAU | Director | Award (A) | +2,531 | $20.12 | $50.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-16 | LYNNE B SAGALYN | Director | Award (A) | +3,275 | $20.12 | $65.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-01 | Fernando Austin Pena | President | Sell (S) | −1,666 | $18.88 | -$31.5K | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-18 | MARCIN URBASZEK | Chief Financial Officer | Sell (S) | −452 | $19.13 | -$8.6K | EDGAR |
| 2026-01-20 | Nnenna Lynch | Director | Award (A) | +809 | $19.50 | $15.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-01-20 | LYNNE B SAGALYN | Director | Award (A) | +3,300 | $19.50 | $64.3K | EDGAR |
| 2026-01-20 | Leonard W Cotton | Director | Award (A) | +1,534 | $19.50 | $29.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-01-20 | HENRY N NASSAU | Director | Award (A) | +2,550 | $19.50 | $49.7K | EDGAR |
| 2026-01-02 | Fernando Austin Pena | President | Sell (S) | −3,131 | $19.24 | -$60.2K | EDGAR |
| 2025-12-29 | LYNNE B SAGALYN | Director | Gift (G) | −10,777 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-12-17 | Fernando Austin Pena | President | Award (A) | +36,843 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-12-17 | Timothy Steven Johnson | Chief Executive Officer | Award (A) | +54,799 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-12-17 | Anthony F. JR Marone | Chief Financial Officer | Mixed | +13,436 | $20.31 | -$20.6K | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
Insider Holdings
23 insiders · @ $18.36
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackstone Holdings III L.P. | 10%+ Owner | 2,460,784 | $45.18M | $300.00M | 1 | 2013-05-30 |
| 2 | Michael B. Nash | Director | 551,675 | $10.13M | $6.56M | 19 | 2025-06-30 |
| 3 | Timothy Steven Johnson | Chief Executive Officer | 527,900 | $9.69M | $998.4K | 4 | 2025-12-17 |
| 4 | Jonathan Lee Pollack | Director | 423,055 | $7.77M | $353.1K | 10 | 2023-12-15 |
| 5 | STEPHEN D PLAVIN | CEO | 407,255 | $7.48M | $1.25M | 10 | 2020-12-08 |
| 6 | John Schreiber | Director | 313,346 | $5.75M | $3.80M | 5 | 2015-11-24 |
| 7 | Katharine A Keenan | CEO & President | 230,006 | $4.22M | -$1.89M | 50 | 2025-09-18 |
| 8 | HENRY N NASSAU | Director | 198,882 | $3.65M | $1.65M | 91 | 2026-04-16 |
| 9 | LYNNE B SAGALYN | Director | 156,936 | $2.88M | $0 | 86 | 2026-04-16 |
| 10 | THOMAS E DOBROWSKI | Director | 129,354 | $2.37M | $0 | 80 | 2025-01-16 |
| 11 | MARTIN L EDELMAN | Director | 105,865 | $1.94M | $0 | 69 | 2023-01-17 |
| 12 | Douglas N. Armer | Executive Vice President | 104,741 | $1.92M | -$1.85M | 79 | 2022-06-10 |
| 13 | Leonard W Cotton | Director | 90,293 | $1.66M | $295.7K | 83 | 2026-04-16 |
| 14 | Fernando Austin Pena | President | 76,967 | $1.41M | -$91.7K | 3 | 2026-04-01 |
| 15 | Anthony F. JR Marone | Chief Financial Officer | 75,500 | $1.39M | -$1.32M | 116 | 2025-12-17 |
| 16 | Nnenna Lynch | Director | 35,208 | $646.4K | $0 | 23 | 2026-04-16 |
| 17 | Thomas C Ruffing | Managing Director | 28,872 | $530.1K | -$266.2K | 63 | 2020-12-08 |
| 18 | MARCIN URBASZEK | Chief Financial Officer | 26,176 | $480.6K | -$39.8K | 4 | 2026-03-18 |
| 19 | Geoffrey G Jervis | See Remarks | 25,400 | $466.3K | $250.0K | 1 | 2013-05-30 |
| 20 | Paul D Quinlan | Chief Financial Officer | 22,376 | $410.8K | -$83.8K | 13 | 2016-01-29 |
| 21 | Gilda Perez-Alvarado | Director | 19,907 | $365.5K | $0 | 4 | 2025-06-30 |
| 22 | Randall S. Rothschild | Secretary & Managing Director | 15,473 | $284.1K | -$12.8K | 13 | 2016-01-04 |
| 23 | Chen Yi Hsu | Director | 4,253 | $78.1K | $0 | 1 | 2025-10-24 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 30.6 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.9 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 189.0 |
| TTM Revenue | $1.6B |
| TTM Net Income | $0.1B |
| TTM EPS | $0.6 |
| ROE | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 10.57% |
| Debt/Equity | 4.64 |