APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.(ARI)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
Snapshot
$10.82
- 52-Week Range
- $9.49 – $11.24
- YTD
- +9.74%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 48.57
- Straddle Price
- $0.97
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.00
- Market Cap
- $1.4B
Fair Value
+50.0% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.53% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.03% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 6.64% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +119.5pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 0.3% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | -10.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.0B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 6.2% |
| Book / Price | 120.6% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 100.0% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 3.8% |
| Debt / Equity | 4.26 |
| Quality Score | 2/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $10.93 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $10.93 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 22.5% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $7.6B |
| Market Cap | $2B |
Peers used for multiples: AGNC, ARR, BXMT, DX, NLY, ORC, RITM, STWD
Blended Fair Value
$50.45
Current Price
$10.74
Deviation
+50.0%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $-52.29 | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $4.49 | 29% | |
| Peer P/E | $8.08 | 11% | median 10.0× · 8 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $388.73 | 11% | median 104.4× · 4 peers |
| Peer P/B | $12.22 | 11% | median 0.9× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/S | $14.01 | 11% | median 2.7× · 4 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $10.93 | 27% | stability 37% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
As of 2026-06-12 · updated 2026-06-12 20:59:55.687000
Info
- Industry (SIC)
- REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS (6798)
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $1.4B
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is a real estate investment trust that originates, invests in, acquires, and manages commercial first-mortgage loans, subordinate financings, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and other real estate-related debt investments. The subordinate loans and first-mortgage loans account for the vast majority of the portfolio on a cost basis. Property types include residential, retail, healthcare, office, mixed-use, hotel, industrial, multifamily, securities, and other, with residential properties and hotels representing the highest property value. More tha…
Price History
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +2.11% | 6 |
| Feb | +2.03% | 6 |
| Mar | -3.41% | 6 |
| Apr | -0.18% | 6 |
| May | +2.82% | 6 |
| Jun | -1.84% | 6 |
| Jul | +6.55% | 5 |
| Aug | -0.72% | 5 |
| Sep | -9.69% | 5 |
| Oct | +4.22% | 5 |
| Nov | +1.32% | 5 |
| Dec | -1.87% | 5 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $10.91
SMA 50: $10.93
SMA 200: $10.43
Current: $10.74
EMA 12: $10.88
EMA 26: $10.90
MACD: -0.0214 | Signal: -0.0232
BULLISH
ADX (14): 16.09
RANGE
+DI: 9.92
−DI: 20.38
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 42.81
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 13.77
Stoch %D: 29.25
Williams %R: -91.84
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $11.07
BB Lower: $10.76
OVERSOLD
OBV: -16,090,814
Vol SMA 20: 1,189,052
Vol ROC: -6.67%
ATR: $0.17
True Range: $0.16
HV 20: 14.1%
HV 30: 13.9%
HV 60: 18.9%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated: 2026-06-13T13:41:27.606000
Date Range: 2024-06-14T00:00:00 – 2026-06-12T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
News
Earnings History
8 of 8 under expected move
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-07 | Pre-Market | 6.68% | 0.20% | 0.03x | Within |
| 2024-10-31 | After-Close | 40.49% | 1.24% | 0.03x | Within |
| 2025-02-11 | Pre-Market | 63.51% | 8.00% | 0.13x | Within |
| 2025-04-25 | Pre-Market | 11.28% | 1.32% | 0.12x | Within |
| 2025-07-30 | Pre-Market | 4.08% | 1.33% | 0.33x | Within |
| 2025-10-31 | Pre-Market | 5.51% | 2.00% | 0.36x | Within |
| 2026-02-11 | After-Close | 7.69% | 1.58% | 0.21x | Within |
| 2026-04-29 | Pre-Market | 11.30% | 2.89% | 0.26x | Within |
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 48.57
- IV Rank (7D)
- 100
- Avg IV
- 117.1%
- Straddle (30D)
- $0.97
- Straddle (7D)
- $0.93
- P/C Volume
- 0.00
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.48
- Correlation (SPY)
- 31.4%
- R²
- 0.10
- Ann. Volatility
- 19.0%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.3%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-03-31
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 139,363,602 (as of 2026-03-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
8 filers$12.40M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UBS Group AG Custodian | $8.29M | 66.86% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $1.29M | 10.37% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $991.58K | 8.00% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $632.54K | 5.10% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $407.62K | 3.29% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $348.48K | 2.81% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $268.00K | 2.16% | 2025-09-30 |
| 8 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $175.30K | 1.41% | 2026-03-31 |
10 filers$27.09M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $7.13M | 26.32% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | PEAK6 LLC | $5.71M | 21.06% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $3.55M | 13.11% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $3.45M | 12.72% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $3.02M | 11.15% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $2.97M | 10.96% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P. | $770.00K | 2.84% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $243.94K | 0.90% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $148.77K | 0.55% | 2025-09-30 |
| 10 | J. Goldman & Co LP | $105.60K | 0.39% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Latest: 2026-05-15
Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Carmencita N.M. Whonder | Director | Sell (S) | −4,574 | $10.93 | -$50.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-03 | MICHAEL SALVATI | Director | Award (A) | +9,587 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-03 | Brenna Haysom Romando | Director | Award (A) | +9,587 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-03 | Scott Prince | Director | Award (A) | +9,587 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-03 | Pamela G Carlton | Director | Award (A) | +9,587 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-03 | Robert A Kasdin | Director | Award (A) | +9,587 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-03 | Carmencita N.M. Whonder | Director | Award (A) | +9,587 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-03 | MARK C BIDERMAN | Director | Award (A) | +9,587 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-02-03 | Anastasia G. Mironova | CFO, Treasurer and Secretary | Tax (F) | −6,385 | $10.68 | -$68.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-02-03 | STUART ROTHSTEIN | President & CEO | Tax (F) | −61,485 | $10.68 | -$656.7K | EDGAR |
| 2026-01-02 | Anastasia G. Mironova | CFO, Treasurer and Secretary | Award (A) | +34,825 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-01-02 | STUART ROTHSTEIN | President & CEO | Award (A) | +109,452 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-12-16 | STUART ROTHSTEIN | President & CEO | Sell (S) | −52,072 | $10.16 | -$529.1K | EDGAR |
| 2025-09-16 | STUART ROTHSTEIN | President & CEO | Sell (S) | −52,073 | $10.78 | -$561.3K | EDGAR |
| 2025-06-17 | STUART ROTHSTEIN | President & CEO | Sell (S) | −52,074 | $9.83 | -$511.8K | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
Insider Holdings
21 insiders · @ $10.74
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ANNUITY & LIFE ASSURANCE Co ATHENE | 10%+ Owner | 3,122,345 | $33.53M | -$11.61M | 1 | 2012-07-19 |
| 2 | Apollo Management Holdings, L.P. | 10%+ Owner | 3,105,023 | $33.35M | -$11.35M | 3 | 2012-07-24 |
| 3 | Apollo Life Asset Ltd. | 10%+ Owner | 3,054,619 | $32.81M | -$14.25M | 1 | 2012-07-27 |
| 4 | Apollo Insurance Solutions Group LP | 10%+ Owner | 2,915,974 | $31.32M | -$14.33M | 1 | 2012-08-01 |
| 5 | STUART ROTHSTEIN | President & CEO | 282,676 | $3.04M | -$6.59M | 32 | 2026-02-03 |
| 6 | ERIC PRESS | Director | 213,748 | $2.30M | -$801.3K | 2 | 2021-04-29 |
| 7 | MICHAEL SALVATI | Director | 163,377 | $1.75M | -$66.5K | 14 | 2026-04-03 |
| 8 | Joseph F Azrack | President and CEO | 121,244 | $1.30M | $500.0K | 4 | 2011-08-08 |
| 9 | Robert A Kasdin | Director | 114,628 | $1.23M | -$367.9K | 10 | 2026-04-03 |
| 10 | Brenna Haysom Romando | Director | 90,534 | $972.3K | $0 | 7 | 2026-04-03 |
| 11 | Anastasia G. Mironova | CFO, Treasurer and Secretary | 75,281 | $808.5K | $0 | 11 | 2026-02-03 |
| 12 | MARK C BIDERMAN | Director | 70,374 | $755.8K | -$513.5K | 16 | 2026-04-03 |
| 13 | Scott Prince | Director | 60,903 | $654.1K | -$452.6K | 9 | 2026-04-03 |
| 14 | Pamela G Carlton | Director | 49,274 | $529.2K | -$27.9K | 9 | 2026-04-03 |
| 15 | Jai Agarwal | CFO, Treasurer and Secretary | 27,120 | $291.3K | -$228.1K | 5 | 2021-04-29 |
| 16 | Carmencita N.M. Whonder | Director | 24,799 | $266.3K | -$275.9K | 9 | 2026-05-15 |
| 17 | Douglas D Abbey | Director | 12,063 | $129.6K | $183.2K | 6 | 2012-04-04 |
| 18 | Alice Connell | Director | 11,788 | $126.6K | $0 | 4 | 2012-04-04 |
| 19 | Cindy Z Michel | Director | 7,823 | $84.0K | $0 | 1 | 2020-03-04 |
| 20 | Katherine G. Newman | Director | 6,524 | $70.1K | $0 | 2 | 2023-01-31 |
| 21 | MARC A BEILINSON | Director | 2,014 | $21.6K | $0 | 3 | 2010-11-12 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 13.4 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.8 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.2 |
| TTM Revenue | $0.7B |
| TTM Net Income | $0.1B |
| TTM EPS | $0.81 |
| ROE | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 10.89% |
| Debt/Equity | 4.26 |