30-year mortgage rate this week
50/50 line58%Above 7.38%
Line nearest 50/50
58%
Market median
7.388%
Biggest 24h move+25 pts
88%
24h volume
$11K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAbove 7.32%
98%
+10
Above 7.30%
98%
+7
Above 7.34%
96%
+23
Above 7.36%
88%
+25
Above 7.38%
58%
+13
Above 7.40%
37%
+18
Above 7.42%
10%
-7
Above 7.46%
9%
Above 7.44%
8%
-6
Above 7.48%
6%
-6
Above 7.50%
6%
-4
Above 7.52%
3%
-7
Above 7.56%
2%
-6
Above 7.58%
2%
-4
+ 1 more in the table below.
What the market expects
median 7.388%Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · dailyWhere the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Above 7.64%YES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders · biggest $2K
- Above 7.60%YES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders · biggest $2K
- Above 7.56%YES $0 · NO $1K · 1 orders · biggest $1K
- Oct 8, 2026YES $0 · NO $1K · 1 orders · biggest $1K
- Above 7.58%YES $0 · NO $1K · 1 orders · biggest $1K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 7.56% | NO | 98¢ | $1K | |
| Above 7.58% | NO | 98¢ | $1K | |
| Above 7.60% | NO | 98¢ | $2K | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | NO | 99¢ | $1K | |
| Above 7.64% | NO | 99¢ | $2K | |
| KX30YMORTW-26OCT08-T7.68 | NO | 99¢ | $2K |
All outcomes
15| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 7.32% | 98% | +10.0 | $178 | $700 |
| Above 7.30% | 98% | +7.0 | $101 | $633 |
| Above 7.34% | 96% | +23.0 | $348 | $182 |
| Above 7.36% | 88% | +25.0 | $2K | $2K |
| Above 7.38% | 58% | +13.0 | $251 | $694 |
| Above 7.40% | 37% | +18.0 | $628 | $1K |
| Above 7.42% | 10% | -7.0 | $171 | $708 |
| Above 7.46% | 9% | — | $9 | $389 |
| Above 7.44% | 8% | -5.5 | $2 | $493 |
| Above 7.48% | 6% | -6.0 | $12 | $709 |
| Above 7.50% | 6% | -3.5 | $10 | $312 |
| Above 7.52% | 3% | -7.0 | $3 | $205 |
| Above 7.56% | 2% | -5.5 | $2K | $2K |
| Above 7.58% | 2% | -4.5 | $2K | $2K |
| Above 7.60% | 1% | -2.0 | $3K | $2K |