How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (10/4-10/10)
50/50 line60%At least 5
Line nearest 50/50
60%
Market median
5.422
Biggest 24h move-14 pts
37%
24h volume
$10K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAt least 1
100%
At least 2
92%
-2
At least 3
82%
-4
At least 4
74%
At least 5
60%
-7
At least 6
37%
-14
At least 7
16%
-12
At least 10
6%
What the market expects
median 5.422Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · hourlyWhere the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- At least 1YES $6K · NO $0 · 2 orders · biggest $3K
- At least 3YES $1K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $1K
- At least 4YES $1K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $1K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 3 | YES | 82¢ | $1K | |
| At least 1 | YES | 99¢ | $3K | |
| At least 1 | YES | 99¢ | $3K | |
| At least 4 | YES | 77¢ | $1K |
All outcomes
8| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 100% | — | $3K | $6K |
| At least 2 | 92% | -1.5 | $2K | $3K |
| At least 3 | 82% | -4.5 | $3K | $3K |
| At least 4 | 74% | +0.5 | $20 | $3K |
| At least 5 | 60% | -7.0 | $91 | $568 |
| At least 6 | 37% | -14.0 | $2K | $2K |
| At least 7 | 16% | -12.5 | $52 | $52 |
| At least 10 | 6% | +0.5 | $13 | $13 |