What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 28%, implying a 28% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Claude

Settles Oct 31, 2026 (24d) All outcomes: Best AI in Oct 2026?

chance of YES28% -2.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

26–79%

24h volume

2.5K

$1 contracts

Open interest

28.5K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

21¢ / 24¢

spread 3.0¢

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

top 5

Mid 22.5¢ · spread 3.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Gemini68%4.3K

Muse2%1.5K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 2, 4:16 PM ET	NO	65¢	4,470	$3K
Oct 2, 3:18 AM ET	YES	33¢	4,882	$2K
Sep 30, 4:26 PM ET	NO	75¢	1,726	$1K
Sep 30, 4:25 PM ET	NO	73¢	2,000	$1K
Sep 30, 4:09 PM ET	NO	63¢	2,993	$2K
Sep 30, 11:17 AM ET	YES	87¢	1,428	$1K
Sep 30, 6:36 AM ET	YES	79¢	1,544	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.