What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 68%, implying a 68% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Gemini

Settles Oct 31, 2026 (24d) All outcomes: Best AI in Oct 2026?

chance of YES68% -0.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

62–72%

24h volume

4.3K

$1 contracts

Open interest

24.0K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$5K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Claude28%2.5K

Muse2%1.5K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 5, 9:49 PM ET	YES	69¢	1,800	$1K
Oct 4, 7:56 AM ET	YES	64¢	2,794	$2K
Sep 30, 4:09 PM ET	YES	68¢	3,513	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.