What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 78%, implying a 78% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 02, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Afford / Affordable / Affordability

Settles Dec 02, 2026 (49d) All outcomes: What will Mamdani say during NYT DealBook Summit?

chance of YES78%

Price range (3h)

67–68%

24h volume

210

$1 contracts

Open interest

168

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 3h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.