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Will César Aira win the Nobel Prize in Literature?

César Aira
Settles Oct 10, 2026 (3d) All outcomes: Nobel Prize in Literature: 2026

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chance of YES19% -4.0pp in 24h
Price range (6d)
4–39%
24h volume
584
$1 contracts
Open interest
794
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

hourly, 6d

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

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Gerald Murnane11%103
Thomas Pynchon10%609

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