Nobel Prize in Literature: 2026
50/50 line55%Cristina Rivera Garza
Line nearest 50/50
55%
Runner-up
55%
Biggest 24h move-4 pts
19%
24h volume
$5K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAlexis Wright
57%
César Aira
19%
-4
Can Xue
16%
+1
Anne Carson
14%
-8
Amitav Ghosh
12%
-4
Salman Rushdie
12%
Gerald Murnane
11%
-6
Thomas Pynchon
10%
+1
Mircea Cărtărescu
10%
+3
Haruki Murakami
6%
+1
Odds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
All outcomes
12| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Wright | 57% | — | $3 | $3 |
| Cristina Rivera Garza | 55% | — | $37 | $35 |
| César Aira | 19% | -4.0 | $584 | $794 |
| Can Xue | 16% | +1.0 | $330 | $727 |
| Anne Carson | 14% | -8.0 | $240 | $2K |
| Amitav Ghosh | 12% | -4.0 | $1K | $885 |
| Salman Rushdie | 12% | — | $2 | $235 |
| Gerald Murnane | 11% | -6.0 | $103 | $296 |
| Thomas Pynchon | 10% | +1.0 | $608 | $2K |
| Mircea Cărtărescu | 10% | +3.0 | $1K | $2K |
| Margaret Atwood | 8% | — | $44 | $399 |
| Haruki Murakami | 6% | +1.0 | $44 | $907 |