What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 98%, implying a 98% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 14.1%

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: OpenAI market share this week

chance of YES98%

Price range (16h)

96–99%

24h volume

5.6K

$1 contracts

Open interest

2.9K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$2K

100% on YES

hourly, 16h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 16.5%88%12.6K

Above 17.8%72%17.1K

Above 17.5%62%12.7K

Above 18.1%58%14.9K

Above 18.4%53%11.8K

Above 18.7%46%10.7K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 6, 1:54 PM ET	YES	98¢	2,459	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.