What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 46%, implying a 46% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 18.1%

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: OpenAI market share this week

chance of YES46% +27.0pp in 24h

Price range (24h)

19–76%

24h volume

13.9K

$1 contracts

Open interest

4.7K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 24h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 16.5%88%12.6K

Above 17.5%74%12.7K

Above 17.8%62%16.1K

Above 18.4%46%11.8K

Above 18.7%45%10.2K