What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 37%, implying a 37% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

December 31

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $344 Open interest $4.3K Event Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

37%

implied YES probability

+11.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 62 days · High 56% · Low 16% · 7d +23.1pp · 30d +29.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.