Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

The prediction market is asking whether Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by December 31, 2026. The current price indicates a 14% probability that he will retire by this date. Known facts informing the current price include Alito's age and potential considerations for retirement, as well as any public statements or actions that may suggest his intentions. A change in the market price would likely occur if new information emerges about Alito's plans or if there are changes to the Supreme Court's dynamics that could influence his decision.