polymarket Politics

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?

July 15
Closes Dec 31, 2026 (174d) 24h volume $337.7K Open interest $1.0M Event Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
6%
implied YES probability
+3.2pp 24h

Price history

Last 10 days · High 10% · Low 2% · 7d -41.8pp
10%2%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

Other outcomes in this event

June 30, 2027
61% YES
24h vol $8.1K
December 31
29% YES
24h vol $35.7K
September 30
18% YES
24h vol $105.1K
February 28
0% YES
24h vol —
March 31
0% YES
24h vol —

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market is asking whether Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by July 15, 2026. The current price indicates a 5% probability that he will retire by this date. Known facts informing the current price include Alito's age and potential considerations for stepping down from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court. A change in the market's perception of Alito's retirement plans or any announcement from him regarding his intentions would likely impact the price, with a decrease in the YES price indicating less likelihood of retirement by July 15, 2026.
Generated Jul 09, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.