Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

The prediction market on Samuel Alito's potential retirement by July 15, 2026, currently indicates a 0% probability of his announcement, with the YES price set at 0.00. This assessment is based on publicly available information and does not account for any private deliberations or internal discussions that may be influencing Alito's decision. The market will resolve to "Yes" if Alito announces his retirement by the specified date, regardless of whether he provides a specific timeline for his departure from the Supreme Court. Any changes in the current price would likely be driven by new information about Alito's intentions or potential factors that could influence his decision, such as changes in court dynamics or personal circumstances.