Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

The prediction market is asking whether Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by September 30, 2026. The current price indicates a 16% probability that he will make such an announcement. This assessment is informed by known facts about Alito's tenure and potential motivations for retiring. A change in the price would likely occur if new information emerges about Alito's plans or intentions, such as a statement from him or his office indicating retirement, which could drive the price up. Conversely, a decrease in the price might result from continued silence on the matter or indications that he intends to continue serving on the Supreme Court. The market will close on December 31, 2026, at which point it will be resolved as either "Yes" or "No".