Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

The prediction market on Samuel Alito's potential retirement by September 30, 2026, currently assigns a 4% probability to a "Yes" outcome, with the current price standing at 0.04. This assessment is informed by known facts about Alito's tenure and the typical timing of Supreme Court retirements. The market is asking whether Alito will announce his retirement by the specified date, which could be immediate or occur at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito would count as a "Yes" resolution, regardless of the actual effective date of his retirement. A change in the likelihood of Alito's retirement would likely impact the market price, with an increase in probability driving the price up and a decrease driving it down.