Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Class A Common Stock(MGY)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
Snapshot
$28.16
- 52-Week Range
- $21.07 – $32.76
- YTD
- +25.27%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 21.65
- Straddle Price
- $3.20
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.71
- Market Cap
- $5.0B
Fair Value
-4.6% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.53% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.03% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.64% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +36.1pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 18.6% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +12.4% |
| DCF Horizon | 12 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.10 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.2B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 15.7% |
| Book / Price | 40.4% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 100.0% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 16.6% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.19 |
| Quality Score | 5/6 — high quality (12y DCF) |
| Market-Implied Growth | +10.7% (reverse-DCF on current price) |
| SMA 50 | $28.99 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $28.35 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 46.3% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $0.3B |
| Market Cap | $5B |
Peers used for multiples: CRC, CRGY, EOG, EQT, EXE, FANG, NE, SM
Blended Fair Value
$26.36
Current Price
$27.62
Deviation
-4.6%
Forward-Return Rank
SHORT
gated
?
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | -3.2% | -0.10 | -0.42 | 92.3% | — |
| 42d | -3.1% | +0.32 | -0.42 | 92.3% | — |
| 63d | -5.5% | -0.14 | -0.42 | 92.3% | — |
Expected α = forward-return point estimate vs SPY (e.g., +7.5% means the predictor expects this stock to outperform SPY by 7.5% over that horizon).
For SHORT direction the model uses a different ranking metric (conviction-weighted deviation, not the LGBM prediction); Expected α is shown for reference.
⚠ flags rows where Expected α disagrees with the FV direction — two independent signals are in conflict; conviction is low even if rank looks extreme.
Forward-Return Rank. A proprietary ensemble of a machine-learning forward-return model and a conviction-weighted fundamental score, ranked cross-sectionally each day across the S&P 500 (and broader universes on the screener). Each stock is scored at three horizons (21/42/63 trading days). "Active" = top/bottom 5% AND all risk filters pass. Backtested mean alpha vs SPY on active picks: 21d LONG +13.4%, 63d +34.9% (S&P 500, walk-forward). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Value vs momentum conflict ⚠. The "FV direction" (long/short) comes from the fundamentals-based engine — price vs intrinsic value. The "Expected α" comes from a separate machine-learning predictor trained on ~12 features (sector, options-implied move, beta, institutional flow, etc.). Sometimes the two disagree: a stock is overvalued by fundamentals but the predictor expects it to keep outperforming (sector or momentum tailwinds). When all 3 horizons disagree, treat the direction signal as low-conviction — neither model is strongly recommending a position.
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $30.37 | 32% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $13.15 | 26% | |
| Peer P/E | $43.34 | 15% | median 22.9× · 6 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $32.18 | 15% | median 6.5× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/B | $15.57 | 3% | median 1.4× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/S | $17.22 | 10% | median 2.2× · 8 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $28.99 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
As of 2026-06-12 · updated 2026-06-12 20:59:55.687000
Info
- Industry (SIC)
- CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS (1311)
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $5.0B
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) reserves. The company's oil and natural gas properties are located in Karnes County and the Giddings area of South Texas, where it targets the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations. It focuses on generating value for shareholders by delivering steady, moderate annual production growth resulting from its capital spending philosophy. The company operates in only one segment and derives the majority of …
Price History
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +5.09% | 6 |
| Feb | +7.10% | 6 |
| Mar | +5.03% | 6 |
| Apr | -4.99% | 6 |
| May | +2.87% | 6 |
| Jun | +0.59% | 6 |
| Jul | +3.12% | 5 |
| Aug | +0.76% | 5 |
| Sep | -2.04% | 5 |
| Oct | +5.63% | 5 |
| Nov | -1.00% | 5 |
| Dec | -6.11% | 5 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $28.29
SMA 50: $28.94
SMA 200: $25.74
Current: $27.62
EMA 12: $27.81
EMA 26: $28.25
MACD: -0.4404 | Signal: -0.0294
BEARISH
ADX (14): 20.33
WEAK TREND
+DI: 14.44
−DI: 28.10
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 44.54
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 25.90
Stoch %D: 22.18
Williams %R: -66.38
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $30.17
BB Lower: $26.41
NEUTRAL
OBV: 30,766,595
Vol SMA 20: 2,065,787
Vol ROC: -15.08%
ATR: $0.86
True Range: $0.95
HV 20: 29.2%
HV 30: 34.8%
HV 60: 35.1%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated: 2026-06-13T13:41:38.549000
Date Range: 2024-06-14T00:00:00 – 2026-06-12T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
News
Earnings History
8 of 8 under expected move
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-31 | After-Close | 14.05% | 6.21% | 0.44x | Within |
| 2024-10-30 | Pre-Market | 10.18% | 1.03% | 0.10x | Within |
| 2025-02-18 | After-Close | 7.41% | 2.85% | 0.38x | Within |
| 2025-04-30 | Pre-Market | 13.10% | 3.86% | 0.29x | Within |
| 2025-07-30 | After-Close | 10.02% | 2.58% | 0.26x | Within |
| 2025-10-29 | After-Close | 10.87% | 2.57% | 0.24x | Within |
| 2026-02-05 | After-Close | 12.48% | 3.28% | 0.26x | Within |
| 2026-05-06 | After-Close | 7.94% | 1.75% | 0.22x | Within |
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 21.65
- IV Rank (7D)
- 100
- Avg IV
- 70.9%
- Straddle (30D)
- $3.20
- Straddle (7D)
- $2.18
- P/C Volume
- 0.71
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- -0.11
- Correlation (SPY)
- -4.3%
- R²
- 0.00
- Ann. Volatility
- 30.7%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.3%
Negative beta - stock moves opposite to market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-03-31
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 185,037,750 (as of 2026-03-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
6 filers$2.74M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $1.33M | 48.59% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $435.67K | 15.93% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $419.88K | 15.35% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $285.32K | 10.43% | 2025-09-30 |
| 5 | Walleye Capital LLC | $236.78K | 8.66% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | Walleye Trading LLC | $28.41K | 1.04% | 2026-03-31 |
3 filers$3.92M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $3.25M | 83.08% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $457.76K | 11.68% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | Walleye Capital LLC | $205.21K | 5.24% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Latest: 2026-06-03
Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Shandell Szabo | Director | Buy (P) | +86 | $27.44 | $2.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-03 | Arcilia Acosta | Director | Award (A) | +72 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-12 | Ralph Lewis Ropp | Director | Award (A) | +6,320 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-12 | Arcilia Acosta | Director | Award (A) | +6,320 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-12 | JAMES R LARSON | Director | Award (A) | +6,320 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-12 | EDWARD P DJEREJIAN | Director | Award (A) | +6,320 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-12 | DAN F SMITH | Director | Award (A) | +8,028 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-12 | Shandell Szabo | Director | Award (A) | +6,320 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-12 | David M. Khani | Director | Award (A) | +6,320 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-11 | Arcilia Acosta | Director | Sell (S) | −19,235 | $29.10 | -$559.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-11 | EDWARD P DJEREJIAN | Director | Sell (S) | −18,000 | $28.98 | -$521.6K | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-11 | DAN F SMITH | Director | Sell (S) | −18,000 | $29.01 | -$522.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-11 | Brian Corales | SVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Sell (S) | −33,000 | $29.12 | -$961.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-11 | Christopher G Stavros | CEO & CHAIRMAN | Sell (S) | −119,954 | $29.29 | -$3.51M | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-11 | Timothy D. Yang | EVP, CHIEF LEGAL & COMM & SEC | Sell (S) | −150,000 | $29.29 | -$4.39M | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
Insider Holdings
22 insiders · @ $27.62
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EnerVest Energy Institutional Fund XIV-2A, L.P. | 10%+ Owner | 16,833,715 | $464.95M | -$1.41B | 1 | 2022-02-07 |
| 2 | EnerVest Energy Institutional Fund XIV-A, L.P. | 10%+ Owner | 16,164,961 | $446.48M | -$4.23B | 2 | 2024-05-15 |
| 3 | EnerVest Energy Institutional Fund XIV-WIC, L.P. | 10%+ Owner | 15,796,077 | $436.29M | -$4.26B | 3 | 2022-11-08 |
| 4 | EnerVest, Ltd. | Director | 10,912,450 | $301.40M | -$2.80B | 2 | 2022-06-06 |
| 5 | John B Walker | Director | 9,714,888 | $268.33M | -$1.71B | 17 | 2024-09-25 |
| 6 | STEPHEN I CHAZEN | CHAIRMAN, CEO, PRESIDENT | 7,045,971 | $194.61M | $3.39M | 7 | 2021-08-05 |
| 7 | DAVID BONDERMAN | 4,739,224 | $130.90M | $0 | 1 | 2019-08-15 | |
| 8 | EnerVest Energy Institutional Fund XIV-3A, L.P. | Director | 2,099,403 | $57.99M | -$2.73B | 2 | 2024-09-25 |
| 9 | Michael G. MacDougall | Director | 1,877,464 | $51.86M | -$11.56M | 9 | 2019-12-18 |
| 10 | Christopher G Stavros | CEO & CHAIRMAN | 883,592 | $24.40M | -$3.46M | 26 | 2026-03-11 |
| 11 | Timothy D. Yang | EVP, CHIEF LEGAL & COMM & SEC | 526,661 | $14.55M | -$4.39M | 44 | 2026-03-11 |
| 12 | Steve Millican | SVP - OPERATIONS | 328,820 | $9.08M | $0 | 19 | 2024-03-05 |
| 13 | Brian Corales | SVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | 184,178 | $5.09M | -$961.0K | 10 | 2026-03-11 |
| 14 | Arcilia Acosta | Director | 134,641 | $3.72M | -$559.8K | 26 | 2026-06-03 |
| 15 | DAN F SMITH | Director | 127,232 | $3.51M | -$522.2K | 8 | 2026-05-12 |
| 16 | EDWARD P DJEREJIAN | Director | 116,745 | $3.22M | -$521.6K | 8 | 2026-05-12 |
| 17 | JAMES R LARSON | Director | 97,295 | $2.69M | $33.5K | 10 | 2026-05-12 |
| 18 | Angela M Busch | Director | 94,161 | $2.60M | $155.4K | 16 | 2024-03-05 |
| 19 | Valerie Chase | VP, CAO & CONTROLLER | 92,888 | $2.57M | $0 | 10 | 2021-08-04 |
| 20 | David M. Khani | Director | 22,622 | $624.8K | $0 | 4 | 2026-05-12 |
| 21 | Ralph Lewis Ropp | Director | 21,007 | $580.2K | $104.0K | 4 | 2026-05-12 |
| 22 | Shandell Szabo | Director | 20,710 | $572.0K | $252.2K | 5 | 2026-06-03 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 16.4 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.5 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0 |
| TTM Revenue | $1.3B |
| TTM Net Income | $0.3B |
| TTM EPS | $1.72 |
| ROE | 15.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.29% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.19 |