Altria Group, Inc.(MO)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $54.70 – $74.56
- YTD
- +24.55%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 23.06
- Straddle Price
- $3.85
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.79
- Market Cap
- $120.5B
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.49% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.70% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 8.64% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +7.3pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +21bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 23.8% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | -10.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $8.6B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -250.1% |
| Book / Price | -2.6% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 63.1% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 36.8% |
| Quality Score | 3/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| Market-Implied Growth | +2.2% (reverse-DCF on current price) |
| SMA 50 | $68.96 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $71.47 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 14.8% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $20.5B |
| Market Cap | $121B |
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | -6.2% | -1.53 | -0.75 | 40.7% | — |
| 42d | -6.4% | -0.64 | -0.75 | 40.7% | — |
| 63d | -6.7% | -0.56 | -0.75 | 40.7% | — |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $28.23 | 19% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $24.03 | 15% | |
| Peer P/E | $116.71 | 5% | median 24.4× · 8 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $131.12 | 6% | median 19.2× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/B | n/a | 0% | median 9.1× · 7 peers |
| Peer P/S | $28.12 | 7% | median 2.0× · 8 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $68.96 | 29% | stability 76% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $80.90 | 19% | 31 strikes · skew -0.11 |
- Industry (SIC)
- CIGARETTES (2111)
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $120.5B
Altria comprises Philip Morris USA, U.S. Smokeless Tobacco, John Middleton, Horizon Innovations, and Helix Innovations. Through its tobacco subsidiaries, Altria maintains the leading position in cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the United States and the number-two spot in machine-made cigars. The company's Marlboro brand is the leading cigarette brand in the US with 40% share in 2024. Beyond its core business, it holds an 8% interest in the world's largest brewer, Anheuser-Busch InBev, and a 41% stake in cannabis manufacturer Cronos. In reduced-risk products, it acquired vaping company Njoy…
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +1.30% | 23 |
| Feb | +1.01% | 23 |
| Mar | -1.97% | 23 |
| Apr | +1.70% | 23 |
| May | -0.01% | 23 |
| Jun | -1.82% | 23 |
| Jul | +1.66% | 22 |
| Aug | +1.22% | 22 |
| Sep | -2.20% | 23 |
| Oct | +2.87% | 23 |
| Nov | +1.97% | 23 |
| Dec | +0.42% | 23 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report: MO
Executive Summary
BULLISH (Confidence Level: 7/10)
Key Drivers:
- Strong technical signals, including a bullish MACD crossover and rising RSI
- Positive news sentiment, with neutral headlines driving recent price movements
- Low risk profile, with a negative beta indicating the stock moves opposite to market
Primary Risks:
- Potential for profit-taking following the recent rally
- Volatility could increase if earnings data is not met or unexpected market events occur
Investment Thesis: MO presents a buying opportunity, driven by strong technical signals and positive news sentiment. The company's low risk profile and negative beta make it an attractive option for investors seeking defensive plays.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: The recent news headlines have been neutral, with no significant market-moving events. This has allowed the stock to focus on its technical signals and momentum indicators.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction:
- Short-term: Uptrend (1-4 weeks)
- Medium-term: Neutral (1-3 months)
- Long-term: Uptrend (3-12 months)
Support/Resistance Levels:
- Key resistance: $75.26 (Bollinger Band Upper)
- Support: $67.68 (Bollinger Band Lower)
Momentum Signals: RSI: 56.37 (neutral), indicating a potential consolidation phase MACD: Bullish crossover, suggesting continued upward momentum
Volume Analysis: Volume SMA 20: 7957786.25 (increasing volume support) On-Balance Volume (OBV): 376626117.00 (strong OBV signal)
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary:
- Neutral headlines dominate recent news coverage, with no significant market-moving events
Sentiment Assessment: Neutral sentiment prevails, with a slight bias towards positive sentiment due to the bullish MACD crossover and rising RSI.
Catalyst Identification: No immediate catalysts are identified, but upcoming earnings data could provide a potential driver for price movements.
Market Narrative: The recent news headlines have been neutral, allowing the stock to focus on its technical signals and momentum indicators. The market narrative suggests a defensive positioning strategy, with MO presenting an attractive option due to its low risk profile and negative beta.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Risk Metrics:
- Beta: -0.31 (negative vs SPY)
- Alpha: 0.29
- Correlation: -0.17
- Stock Volatility: 0.23
IV Rank: 40.5% (Medium), indicating historically average volatility levels
Options Market Signals:
- IV Rank: Medium, suggesting a stable options market
- Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.40 (Bullish sentiment)
- Put/Call OI Ratio: 0.89
Market Context & Positioning
Market Performance: Sector performance is neutral, with MO presenting a relatively strong performer.
Institutional Activity: Volume patterns suggest institutional interest, with increasing volume supporting the stock's upward momentum.
Correlation Analysis: R-squared interpretation suggests MO moves independently of the market (low correlation).
Relative Valuation: MO presents an attractive option due to its low risk profile and negative beta, positioning it relatively stronger compared to other stocks in its sector.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- Support: $67.68 (Bollinger Band Lower)
- Resistance: $75.26 (Bollinger Band Upper)
Breakout/Breakdown Levels: No immediate levels are identified, but watch for potential breakout or breakdowns around the key resistance and support levels.
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: No immediate catalysts are identified, but upcoming earnings data could provide a potential driver for price movements.
Risk Management: Stop-loss levels: $69.50 (5% below current price); position sizing considerations: 2-3% of portfolio
This analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of MO's technical and fundamental performance, highlighting key drivers and risks. The report concludes that MO presents a buying opportunity, driven by strong technical signals and positive news sentiment.
- IV Rank (30D)
- 23.06
- IV Rank (7D)
- 100
- Avg IV
- 34.3%
- Straddle (30D)
- $3.85
- Straddle (7D)
- $1.49
- P/C Volume
- 0.79
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- -0.32
- Correlation (SPY)
- -16.7%
- R²
- 0.03
- Ann. Volatility
- 22.9%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.1%
Negative beta - stock moves opposite to market
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $238.11M | 23.98% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $157.20M | 15.83% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $117.64M | 11.85% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $96.88M | 9.76% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $61.11M | 6.16% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $44.92M | 4.52% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC Custodian | $38.83M | 3.91% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $33.91M | 3.41% | 2025-09-30 |
| 9 | ROYAL BANK OF CANADA Custodian | $26.40M | 2.66% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT S.A. | $23.53M | 2.37% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | NATIONAL BANK OF CANADA /FI/ Custodian | $15.24M | 1.54% | 2026-03-31 |
| 12 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $15.05M | 1.52% | 2026-03-31 |
| 13 | Squarepoint Ops LLC | $14.12M | 1.42% | 2026-03-31 |
| 14 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $13.59M | 1.37% | 2026-03-31 |
| 15 | BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P. | $11.90M | 1.20% | 2026-03-31 |
| 16 | Cubist Systematic Strategies, LLC | $11.28M | 1.14% | 2025-09-30 |
| 17 | Walleye Capital LLC | $10.06M | 1.01% | 2026-03-31 |
| 18 | Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $9.24M | 0.93% | 2026-03-31 |
| 19 | Twin Tree Management, LP | $9.07M | 0.91% | 2026-03-31 |
| 20 | UBS Group AG Custodian | $8.61M | 0.87% | 2026-03-31 |
| 21 | Walleye Trading LLC | $6.48M | 0.65% | 2026-03-31 |
| 22 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Custodian | $4.80M | 0.48% | 2026-03-31 |
| 23 | Caption Management, LLC | $3.96M | 0.40% | 2026-03-31 |
| 24 | Allianz Asset Management GmbH | $3.73M | 0.38% | 2026-03-31 |
| 25 | BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ Custodian | $3.60M | 0.36% | 2026-03-31 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $226.96M | 27.49% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $114.78M | 13.90% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC Custodian | $110.98M | 13.44% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $54.12M | 6.56% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $44.44M | 5.38% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Custodian | $34.62M | 4.19% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $28.10M | 3.40% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $24.84M | 3.01% | 2025-09-30 |
| 9 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $22.98M | 2.78% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | Cubist Systematic Strategies, LLC | $18.44M | 2.23% | 2025-09-30 |
| 11 | Eisler Capital Management Ltd. | $16.69M | 2.02% | 2025-09-30 |
| 12 | BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P. | $12.72M | 1.54% | 2026-03-31 |
| 13 | Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $11.19M | 1.35% | 2026-03-31 |
| 14 | CAPSTONE INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC | $11.07M | 1.34% | 2026-03-31 |
| 15 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $9.56M | 1.16% | 2026-03-31 |
| 16 | UBS Group AG Custodian | $8.90M | 1.08% | 2026-03-31 |
| 17 | HSBC HOLDINGS PLC Custodian | $8.86M | 1.07% | 2026-03-31 |
| 18 | CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT S.A. | $8.74M | 1.06% | 2026-03-31 |
| 19 | Twin Tree Management, LP | $8.39M | 1.02% | 2026-03-31 |
| 20 | Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P. | $6.99M | 0.85% | 2026-03-31 |
| 21 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $6.24M | 0.76% | 2026-03-31 |
| 22 | Allianz Asset Management GmbH | $5.54M | 0.67% | 2026-03-31 |
| 23 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $4.72M | 0.57% | 2026-03-31 |
| 24 | Squarepoint Ops LLC | $4.16M | 0.50% | 2026-03-31 |
| 25 | Walleye Trading LLC | $3.95M | 0.48% | 2026-03-31 |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 14.9 |
| P/B Ratio | -36.7 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.1 |
| TTM Revenue | $23.4B |
| TTM Net Income | $8.0B |
| TTM EPS | $4.79 |
| ROE | -250.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.95% |
| Debt/Equity | -7.66 |