K KalshiTech & AI

When will Google release Gemini 4?

6 outcomesSettles Oct 16, 2026 (13d)
50/50 line46%Before Oct 16, 2026
Line nearest 50/50
46%
Before Oct 16, 2026
Runner-up
96%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Biggest 24h move-16 pts
46%
Before Oct 16, 2026
24h volume
$5K
$22K open interest · $1 contracts

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no
Before Dec 1, 2026 96% +6
Before Jan 1, 2027 96%
Before Dec 15, 2026 96% +7
Before Nov 1, 2026 80% -8
Before Nov 15, 2026 56% -26
Before Oct 16, 2026 46% -16

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

Where the large orders went

7 days · ≥ $1K
  • Before Oct 1, 2026
    YES $8K · NO $3K · 6 orders · biggest $3K

Recent large orders

WhenOutcomeSidePriceSize
Before Oct 1, 2026NO 99¢$1K
Before Oct 1, 2026NO 95¢$1K
Before Oct 1, 2026YES 10¢$1K
Before Oct 1, 2026YES 94¢$3K
Before Oct 1, 2026YES 19¢$2K
Before Oct 1, 2026YES 19¢$1K

All outcomes

6
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
Before Dec 1, 2026 96% +5.5 $1K $3K
Before Jan 1, 2027 96% +0.5 $25 $1K
Before Dec 15, 2026 96% +7.0 $512 $367
Before Nov 1, 2026 80% -7.5 $475 $6K
Before Nov 15, 2026 56% -26.5 $109 $740
Before Oct 16, 2026 46% -16.5 $3K $10K

Same series