What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 96%, implying a 96% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Before Dec 1, 2026

Settles Dec 01, 2026 (59d) All outcomes: When will Google release Gemini 4?

chance of YES96% +5.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

65–94%

· 7d +5 pts

24h volume

1.0K

$1 contracts

Open interest

3.4K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.