What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 60%, implying a 60% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 15, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Before Nov 15, 2026

Settles Nov 15, 2026 (43d) All outcomes: When will Google release Gemini 4?

chance of YES60% -27.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

60–98%

· 7d +25 pts

24h volume

100

$1 contracts

Open interest

740

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.