What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 82%, implying a 82% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Before Nov 1, 2026

Settles Nov 01, 2026 (29d) All outcomes: When will Google release Gemini 4?

chance of YES82% -5.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

28–94%

· 7d -1 pts

24h volume

457

$1 contracts

Open interest

6.1K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$1K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Sep 24, 12:50 AM ET	YES	80¢	1,399	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.