What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 46%, implying a 46% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Before Oct 16, 2026

Settles Oct 16, 2026 (13d) All outcomes: When will Google release Gemini 4?

chance of YES46% -18.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

44–64%

· 7d -12 pts

24h volume

2.6K

$1 contracts

Open interest

10.3K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.