What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 96%, implying a 96% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 15, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Before Dec 15, 2026

Settles Dec 15, 2026 (73d) All outcomes: When will Google release Gemini 4?

chance of YES96% +7.0pp in 24h

Price range (43h)

88–96%

24h volume

512

$1 contracts

Open interest

367

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 43h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.