P PolymarketTech & AI

Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by...?

1 outcomeSettles Oct 31, 2026 (20d)

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Theme
Preview
Favorite14%October 16
Favorite
14%
October 16
Runner-up
—
single-outcome market
Biggest 24h move-16 pts
14%
October 16
24h volume
$794
$3K open interest

Current odds

one winner
October 16 14% -16

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

1
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
October 16 14% -16.0 $794 $3K

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.