What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 46%, implying a 46% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Feb 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?

Settles Feb 01, 2027 (113d) All outcomes: Blue tsunami in 2026? Polls & election odds

chance of YES46% -1.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

36–54%

30d +18 pts · 7d -12 pts

24h volume

2.9K

$1 contracts

Open interest

316.1K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

48¢ / 49¢

spread 1.0¢

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

top 5

Mid 48.5¢ · spread 1.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 5, 9:37 PM ET	NO	55¢	8,779	$5K
Oct 5, 8:06 PM ET	NO	50¢	3,390	$2K
Oct 5, 4:29 PM ET	NO	49¢	2,955	$1K
Oct 5, 2:27 AM ET	YES	53¢	2,740	$1K
Oct 2, 8:34 PM ET	NO	49¢	2,978	$1K
Oct 1, 3:32 PM ET	YES	55¢	1,971	$1K
Sep 30, 12:48 PM ET	NO	49¢	4,479	$2K
Sep 29, 2:42 PM ET	YES	54¢	2,139	$1K
Sep 29, 9:00 AM ET	YES	53¢	4,080	$2K
Sep 29, 5:51 AM ET	NO	53¢	2,045	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.