What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 52%, implying a 52% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 20, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Hadrian

chance of YES52% +19.0pp in 24h

Price range (2d)

31–50%

24h volume

293

$1 contracts

Open interest

319

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 2d

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

F-3598%12