What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 10%, implying a 10% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 10, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Mircea Cărtărescu

Settles Oct 10, 2026 (3d) All outcomes: Nobel Prize in Literature: 2026

chance of YES10% +3.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

4–12%

24h volume

1.4K

$1 contracts

Open interest

1.5K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.