What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 7%, implying a 7% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Cloudflare

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (71d) All outcomes: Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?

chance of YES7% -5.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

3–23%

· 7d +67 pts

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

479

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.