What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 26, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

At least 5 weeks

Settles Dec 26, 2026 (63d) All outcomes: Patient Zero weeks at #1: 2026

chance of YES18% +26.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

4–10%

24h volume

120

$1 contracts

Open interest

223

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.