What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 52%, implying a 52% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 27, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 18M

chance of YES52% -8.5pp in 24h

Price range (2d)

29–84%

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

281

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 2d

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.