What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 54%, implying a 54% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 10.8%

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: Z.ai market share this week

chance of YES54% +37.0pp in 24h

Price range (23h)

17–98%

24h volume

13.3K

$1 contracts

Open interest

10.2K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$2K

0% on YES

hourly, 23h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 7.2%100%100

Above 8.4%100%200

Above 8.9%98%5.7K

Above 14.1%32%16.4K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 6, 2:14 PM ET	NO	60¢	2,514	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.