What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 100%, implying a 100% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 7.6%

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: Z.ai market share this week

chance of YES100% +10.0pp in 24h

Price range (1h)

83–93%

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

182

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 1h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 7.2%100%100

Above 8.4%100%200

Above 8.9%98%5.7K

Above 10.8%57%12.3K

Above 14.1%30%16.3K