What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 30%, implying a 30% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 14.1%

Settles Oct 12, 2026 (5d) All outcomes: Z.ai market share this week

chance of YES30% -21.5pp in 24h

Price range (22h)

9–85%

24h volume

16.3K

$1 contracts

Open interest

5.7K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 22h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Above 7.2%100%100

Above 8.4%100%200

Above 8.9%98%5.7K

Above 10.8%57%12.3K